Guterres’ Gambit on Cyprus: Can It Revive a Stagnant Peace Process?

The latest move by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to revive the stalled peace process in Cyprus has sparked hope among those who have been watching the island’s conflict for decades. In his first visit to Cyprus in 16 years, Guterres met with the leaders of the two communities and sounded a clear alarm about the risks of regional instability if the issue remains unresolved.

The timing of this initiative is significant. As the Middle East descends into chaos, with war raging in several countries and tensions between Israel and Turkey at an all-time high, Guterres has identified Cyprus as a potential flashpoint. His assessment that a solution to the island’s partition is crucial for regional stability resonates with many who have long argued that the conflict has become entangled in wider geostrategic rivalries.

The peace process has been stuck in neutral since the collapse of negotiations in Crans-Montana in 2017. The UN’s own efforts to broker a reunification agreement have been met with skepticism by Turkey, which continues to insist on a two-state solution. This stance is at odds with the UN Security Council resolutions that call for a bicommunal federation.

Guterres’ initiative recognizes that a solution will require not just the commitment of the two Cypriot communities but also the active engagement of external powers. The appointment of EU Special Representative Raffaele Fitto has been seen as a significant step towards reviving the peace process, and some analysts believe it could provide Ankara with sufficient leverage to reconsider its stance on a bicommunal federation.

The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Guterres’ initiative pays off. The UN chief’s decision to convene an informal expanded 5+1 meeting involving the two Cypriot communities, the guarantor powers (Greece, Turkey and the UK), plus the UN is a positive signal. However, it remains to be seen if Ankara will finally take concrete steps towards engaging in genuine negotiations.

One of the most significant obstacles facing Guterres’ initiative is the lack of tangible progress on confidence-building measures. Despite months of discussions, the two sides have failed to reach agreement even on opening new crossing points, a step that could have a tangible impact on the daily lives of Cypriots and help restore trust ahead of the next phase of negotiations.

The question now hanging in the balance is whether Ankara will finally commit to reengaging with the peace process. The UN’s words are cautious but encouraging: Guterres has “the consent of both sides and the guarantor powers” for another 5+1 meeting, provided there is adequate preparation. This suggests that procedurally, at least, Turkey is willing to participate in informal talks under UN auspices.

However, the real challenge will come when the two Cypriot communities are forced to confront the substance of negotiations. Will Ankara finally abandon its insistence on a two-state solution and instead commit to working within the framework of UN Security Council resolutions? Or will it continue to stall, using the familiar tactic of dragging out talks while claiming to be committed to a negotiated settlement?

Cyprus remains a test case for the international community’s ability to manage its competing interests and prioritize the needs of small states caught in the crossfire. The success or failure of Guterres’ initiative will depend on whether it can overcome the entrenched positions of external powers and the mistrust between the two Cypriot communities. Only time will tell if this effort can succeed where others have failed.