How Climate Change Is Reshaping Africa’s Malaria Risk

Climate change is rewriting the rules of malaria transmission across Africa, threatening to upend decades of progress in disease control. A new study published in Nature reveals that warming temperatures are shifting malaria risk zones, creating fresh challenges for health systems and disease management.

The World Health Organization’s African Region accounts for over 95% of global malaria cases and deaths. However, climate change is rapidly altering this landscape, making parts of Southern Africa and high-elevation areas in East Africa increasingly susceptible to malaria transmission.

Malaria transmission by mosquitoes peaks at temperatures between 25°C (77°F) and drops off significantly when temperatures rise above 34°C or fall below 16°C. Historically, many tropical regions of West and Central Africa have had optimal conditions for malaria transmission. Conversely, parts of Southern Africa and the highlands of East Africa have remained cool enough to keep malaria at bay.

But this balance is being disrupted by rising temperatures. The study finds that climate change is making some areas too hot for optimal malaria transmission, while others are becoming increasingly suitable for the disease. This redistribution of risk threatens to undo decades of progress in malaria control and elimination.

The implications are stark. Children under 5 years old account for over 76% of malaria deaths in Africa, with Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger being among the hardest-hit countries. The global health body has recommended a wider use of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine to combat transmission, but funding cuts have jeopardized these efforts.

Climate change is not just redistributing risks; it’s also exacerbating existing challenges. Many African countries have developed adaptation plans, but implementation has lagged behind the pace of climate change. The continent’s health systems are under pressure, and without significant investment in capacity building and institutional reinforcement, many countries risk being unprepared for the evolving epidemiological landscape.

Governments, health systems, and communities must adapt quickly to this new threat by running more aggressive anti-malaria programs in areas where risks are rising. Sustaining elimination efforts in West and Central Africa is also crucial, as resistance to insecticides and drugs, funding gaps, and weak health systems could easily negate any reduction in malaria transmission associated with rising temperatures.

As Olugbenga Mokuolu, a professor of pediatrics at Nigeria’s University of Ilorin, notes, “A world that’s too hot for malaria is not a good world for children’s health overall.” The clock is ticking for African countries to adapt and prepare for this new challenge.