Kim’s Gamble: Why North Korea Will Continue to Back Russia in Ukraine

The partnership between North Korea and Russia in Ukraine has evolved beyond a transactional arrangement, where Pyongyang sends troops in exchange for financial compensation and military benefits. This short-term strategy has become a long-term strategic investment, posing significant risks for the global community.

An estimated 14,000 elite North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Ukraine since June 2024, alongside thousands of military engineers. Their deployment is not just about gaining battlefield experience; it’s also about acquiring access to advanced military technology that would be impossible for Pyongyang to develop on its own.

The strategic partnership between North Korea and Russia has been decades in the making. By backing Russia, North Korea gains a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region. In an era of great power politics, Pyongyang sees its relationship with Moscow as a crucial hedge against Beijing’s ambitions.

This partnership also allows Kim Jong Un to pursue his military modernization goals without breaking the bank. Financial compensation from Russia may be limited, but access to advanced technology and expertise is invaluable. North Korea’s military has long been hampered by a lack of resources and innovation; this partnership provides a much-needed boost.

Kim’s personal stake in this partnership is also significant. The mutual defense treaty signed between Russia and North Korea in June 2024 marked a significant shift in the global balance of power. By backing Russia, Kim is consolidating his own grip on power, as well as pursuing a strategic interest.

The implications of this partnership are far-reaching. As tensions between the US and China continue to escalate, North Korea’s alliance with Russia could become a wild card in the region. The consequences for global stability would be dire if Pyongyang were to send another 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine, as rumored.

Historically, great power partnerships have often led to disastrous outcomes. Consider Germany and Italy during World War II, or France and Britain in the lead-up to World War I. These alliances were forged for strategic gain but ultimately contributed to catastrophic conflict.

The world is watching North Korea’s continued backing of Russia with growing concern. However, the international community has been slow to respond, issuing stern warnings and economic sanctions instead of taking concrete action. This approach has done little to curb Kim’s ambitions; it may have even emboldened him.

As the situation in Ukraine continues to unfold, one thing is clear: North Korea’s partnership with Russia will not be easily broken. The question now is what this means for global stability – and what can be done to prevent a catastrophe from unfolding on our watch.