Will Iran Target Another Maritime Chokepoint?
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Will Iran Target Another Maritime Chokepoint? The Bab El-Mandeb Strait Is Under Threat
The ongoing standoff between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz has captured global attention, but another critical maritime chokepoint is under threat: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, this strategic waterway plays a vital role in global trade, with millions of barrels of oil passing through it daily.
Iranian officials have explicitly stated that they could target “all other export corridors that benefit the U.S. and its allies” in response to the US reinstating its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. This has raised concerns among experts, who fear Iran may use its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt passage through the Bab el-Mandeb.
The Hidden Importance of the Bab El-Mandeb
The significance of this often-overlooked waterway is worth recalling as global attention remains fixed on Middle East tensions. With its narrowest point just 18 miles wide, the Bab el-Mandeb is a critical artery for global trade, particularly when it comes to oil shipments moving from the Persian Gulf through the Suez Canal to Europe and beyond.
The importance of the Bab el-Mandeb has increased in recent years as Saudi Arabia re-routed some volumes away from the Strait of Hormuz. However, this hasn’t gone unnoticed by Iran, which sees the Bab el-Mandeb as a potential pressure point in its ongoing struggle with the US and its allies.
The Houthi Connection
The Houthis, backed by Iranian support, have been accused of targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting flows through the Bab el-Mandeb. This has led to a significant decrease in transit volumes from 9.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to just 4.2 million barrels for the first quarter of 2025.
Experts caution against viewing the Houthis as direct Iranian proxies, emphasizing that they have their own locally defined interests. However, it’s clear that Iran has been using the Houthis to assert pressure on global trade through the Bab el-Mandeb.
The Economic Stakes
A closure or severe disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb would have severe economic consequences. Oil prices would likely skyrocket to $200 a barrel, causing shockwaves around the world. This would have serious implications for major economies, particularly those reliant on imported oil and gas.
The impact would be felt far beyond the Strait itself. Iran’s ability to exert pressure on global trade through multiple chokepoints demonstrates its willingness to engage in asymmetric warfare using proxies and non-state actors to achieve its goals.
This raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies aimed at countering Iranian aggression and whether a more integrated approach is needed to address these emerging threats.
The Global Implications
As tensions continue to simmer in the Middle East, one thing is clear: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has become a critical battleground in the ongoing conflict between Iran and its adversaries. The world watches with bated breath as this delicate balance of power shifts, unsure of what the future holds for global trade and economic stability.
But one thing is certain: the stakes are high, and the consequences of failure will be catastrophic. It’s time to acknowledge the importance of this critical waterway and take concrete steps to prevent its disruption – before it’s too late.
Reader Views
- CMColumnist M. Reid · opinion columnist
The Bab el-Mandeb's vulnerability has been obscured by the Strait of Hormuz's flashpoint status, but let's not forget: this narrow chokepoint is a linchpin in global oil supply chains. Its significance goes beyond mere logistics; it also holds the key to regional power dynamics. As Iran weighs its options, it would do well to consider the consequences of targeting the Bab el-Mandeb - not just for the disruption it would cause, but for the potential to redraw the Middle East's security landscape in unpredictable ways.
- CSCorrespondent S. Tan · field correspondent
It's imperative that policymakers consider the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a critical component of global energy security, not just another Middle Eastern hotspot. The US, Europe, and other nations have long relied on oil shipments from the Persian Gulf passing through this strait. However, their efforts to diversify routes via the Suez Canal may be short-lived if Iran's threats become reality. A targeted disruption here would not only cripple global energy supplies but also underscore the complex web of alliances in the region and the far-reaching consequences of any military action.
- RJReporter J. Avery · staff reporter
It's puzzling that so much attention is being paid to the Strait of Hormuz when the Bab el-Mandeb Strait poses an equally significant threat. The article mentions Iranian officials threatening to disrupt passage through this waterway, but what's not explored is the economic reality: would Iran actually be better off targeting its own oil exports via the Bab el-Mandeb? A disrupted flow could have a far greater impact on global oil prices and their economy than any blockade in Hormuz.